Findings for IME Country Equity Market Indicator - Trial 2 (Japan Equity Market)

Short Term Unit Trust Investing

I'm putting up this blog post to summarize a recently concluded trial run for short term investing using Unit Trust fund. The trigger signal to buy (entry) and to sell (exit) for this trial will be determined by the signals triggered by my own self discovered indicator called "Country Equity Market Indicator".  

A trial will be initiated each time a buy signal is triggered for a specific country indicator. As of time of writing (26 April 2016), two trials have been triggered. One is ongoing and the other has concluded. The trials are as listed below:

1. Trial (India Equity Market) - Posted on IME Facebook Notes (Ongoing)
2. Trial 2 (Japan Equity Market) - Posted on IME Facebook Notes (Completed)

Trial 2 (Japan Equity Market)
Amount Invested : RM5,000
Platform : eUnittrust
Sales Charge : 0% (specially requested)
Fund Name : Affin Hwang Japan Growth Fund
Expected Investment Period : Between 1 week to 18 months
Exit Strategy : When sell signal for “Japan Equity Market Indicator” triggers or when loss reaches 5% (whichever comes first)

Trigger Dates
Buy signal triggered : 12th April 2016
Sell signal triggered : 19th April 2016

Profit/Loss Results
From Date: April 12, 2016
To Date: April 19, 2016
Returns: +3.7 %

Findings for this trial

• My problem here is the manual analysis that I have to carry out for the indicators. When I conduct my weekly analysis for the indicators on the 13th of April 2016 at night, I found out that the buy signal for Japan Equity Market was triggered on the 12th of April 2016.
• Despite missing the buy signal on the 12th, I decided to continue with the trial run by investing into Affin Hwang Japan Growth Fund on the 14th of April 2016. The buy in price on that date was RM0.5890 per unit
• The second problem for this trial was the sell signal triggered on the 19th April 2016. As I have mentioned earlier, I only conduct the my analysis on a weekly basis. This means that I discovered the sell signal a day later, on the 20th April 2016 at night. I conducted the sell transaction via eUnittrust the following day (21st April 2016), selling all units at RM0.5987
• The actual buy and sell transactions for this trial are as shown below:

Summary

1. Ideally, the Country Equity Market Indicator was a success for this particular trial. If the buy and sell transaction were done on the 12th and 19th April, I would have reap RM185 (+3.7%) returns from an investment of RM5000.
2. Due to late entry and late exit as per explained in the "Findings for this trial" section, I made only RM5.94 (+0.12%) instead.
3. Realizing that in order to not miss the buy or sell signals, I have spent the last weekend automating the analysis using the Macro function available on Excel. Now I am able to obtain results for each country indicator at a click of a mouse. This allows me to check the indicators on a daily basis.
4. All trials are conducted using actual money in order to indicate my confidence towards the indicators. 
5. Investing short term into unit trust requires each investment to start with 0% Sales Charge.
6. I intend to continue running trials to test the consistency of each Country Equity Market Indicator. However like all investing strategy, it is not 100% guaranteed to profit all the time. My end game is to achieve is overall positive annual returns for each country indicator.

That's all for now! Happy Investing!

P.S : If you have any questions, feel free to drop me an email at shanesee03@gmail.com

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P.P.P.S : I've recently launched an online learning platform called Unit Trust Made Easy to help Malaysians to kick start their own unit trust investment. For further details, check it out HERE.